But maybe I’m too hopeful that the Nielsen stranglehold is about to be smashed. Maybe I’ve drunk too much of the new media kool-aid!

But here’s why I’m hoping they’re over as the central clearinghouse (or Audit Bureau of Circulation for new media). First, there are too many new emerging competing metrics. As advertisers question the equation of exposure with effectiveness, people are developing multiple strategies for measuring effectiveness. Brand management, direct response, integration, viral marketing, behavioral targeting and so on are reshaping what’s considered advertising. Mere exposure is so 20th century, just like tonnage or mass audiences. Second, there are too many new ways to track audiences across platforms (DVRs, mobile, digital cable, online streams) and there are too many potential providers of that new info (from Google to Tivo to Comcast to ISPs to you-name-it). These gatherers of data are not sitting on their hands. They are out there trying to sell their data mining. So Nielsen keeps trying to tell its traditional clients it’s going to get this data too, but unlike Google, with access to billions of bits of data, Nielsen’s sampling methodology makes its data way less significant and compelling.

So, I think Nielsen is floundering. I’m sure they’re trying hard to catch up. But their corporate culture is in TV culture, not online culture, so I predict it’s just a matter of time before their salience withers. Their significance as sole provider of ratings was just so that advertisers and networks could agree on a number to start negotiating from. This will end because advertisers will no longer have to deal with the bottleneck control networks used to have over advertiser access to audiences. Once advertisers realize they have many more options, they will move on–I think they already are.

So, have I drunk too much new media kool-aid and am deluded into thinking the revolution is on its way? I’m open to argument!