NBC deserves an A- for taking a bold move with The Jay Leno Show, although a D for deployment. Any viewer or industry worker who thinks network television will continue without such bold changes is painfully disillusioned. I’m not typically a fan of prognosticating, but I bet by the decade’s end, at least one network will strip some part of prime time.

Where did NBC go wrong—can we count the ways? This was the wrong time frame and the wrong talent. By giving up 10:00, the experiment became a particularly contentious point for affiliates that depend on a strong 10:00 to carry audiences into news, both late-night and in the morning. Secondly, NBC gave up the opportunity for any kind of “grown-up” series programming because everything needed scheduled before 10:00. In addition to offering little of interest to a good chunk of the audience, this is problematic because of the substantial revenues for the conglomerate owning the network that come from selling programming—some of which is for a 10:00 maturity level—and NBC would soon have little to sell. Sadly, NBC’s one recent glimmer of programming potential, its effective re-invention of the cop franchise in Southland, had to be shipped off to TNT given the lack of room on a schedule bloated with Leno.

The other mistake was not entirely realizing that this is not the television business of 1992. No one wanted to repeat the mess of the Carson/Leno/Letterman saga, and executives were reasonably worried about Leno going elsewhere, but in television of the late 2000s, would this have even mattered. Would a substantial audience really have followed, especially after a period of transition? The truth is, the breadth of audience Leno’s comedy aims for is an artifact of another era. A few might have followed to another network, but probably not enough to make a big difference. Sure, no one wants to be the one that Leno get away, but it isn’t hard to see how radically the comedic landscape of US has become focused on narrow tastes.

We’ll see what happens next; programming costs have to be decreased, but the complexity of network economics—with cost savings coming cheap programming, yet revenue coming from programming that can be sold in subsequent markets and from affiliates—there is no single solution or magic bullet. The Jay Leno Show didn’t save US broadcast networks, but it will take something that bold to do so.

Speculations contributing to the waning viewership for daytime soaps has been circulating for a while now. Changing societal norms, like the increasing number of women entering the work force, the growing popularity of (coincidentally cheaper) fare such as judge and talk shows, the overall variety of viewer choice, and migration to other media platforms during daytime hours have all been identified as factors effecting “sudsers'” ratings. Though in the case of ATWT, fans of the series have other ideas.

Prior to the series finale of Guiding Light, soaps have made valiant attempts to cut costs and attract audiences. Series have tried to reinvigorate the format by changing shooting techniques (use of hand held digital cameras on ATWT and other programs), incorporating fan produced scripts, or signing Hollywood talent for limited runs.

When Guiding Light was canceled a few months ago, it was replaced with the less costly revival of Let’s Make a Deal. However, the suds, like the characters that populate them, are often resurrected. Following NBC’s cancellation of Passions in 2007, the network went into immediate negotiations of the sale of the show to Direct TV. Although, loyal audience members and casual viewers might be currently mourning the end of the series, judging by past post-cancellation soap deals, the probability of the narrative continuing in some vein on cable, satellite, or online seems relatively high.

In any case, ATWT series finale is approaching, giving the show’s producers about 9 more months to either tie up lose ends, incorporate more cliffhangers, or go out with a bang — which in soap opera terms could be anything from split personalities and incest, to orangutan nurses and killer clones. So, stay tuned for the end, as the world stops turning September 2010.

But with the ever decreasing millions of viewers, the current economy, the viability of soaps on other media platforms, and the increased ratings for the game and talk shows that replace them in their time slots — what does this mean for the future of the daytime soap? And what does it mean for the networks that cut them lose?